SPCX is getting force fed into every index and you regards are measuring it wrong
Alright you beautiful degens, gather round, professor's got a chalkboard.
Every SpaceX thread is running the same smooth brain math: "QQQ is around $50B, weight is 1.5%, so they buy $750M, that's nothing, crab city." Wrong denominator. Sit down.
Quick level set since this thing moved fast: priced at **$135 Friday, opened $150, now $178.** Already **+32% from the IPO** and the main event (Nasdaq, \~July 6) hasn't even happened yet. Hold that thought, it matters.
https://preview.redd.it/jkb6vddh3h7h1.png?width=1563&format=png&auto=webp&s=53df6158bf01a27b5e0b2f670282403972b60aea
**The float is the whole game.**
SPCX is "worth" \~$1.7T at IPO but only \~$75B of it actually trades. The rest is locked up. Index funds don't buy a slice of the market cap, they have to own the actual shares, and there are barely any to go around. So you don't measure the buying against the $1.7T, you measure it against the tiny pile that floats.
**And it's not just QQQ, that's the part you're missing.**
NASDAQ weights it at **3x float** when it adds it (July 6). CRSP funds already bought. Russell comes later. Stack up everyone who is LEGALLY FORCED to buy in this window and the real bid is around **$9B**. On a $75B float that's 12% of every tradable share getting hoovered up by funds that cannot say no, cannot wait for a cheaper price, cannot tap out.
https://preview.redd.it/c6ljiwmx4h7h1.png?width=1260&format=png&auto=webp&s=64ef25c6299bce74c9b625a3f9b7970e76f8722b
(side note: the $14B number the financial media keeps parroting is too high. I went through the ACTUAL holdings of 32,000 funds. active managers basically don't buy the new name, like 1 in 20 even hold it. so the real forced bid is $9B and it's almost all passive robots, not humans with opinions.)
https://preview.redd.it/gnpnjjii4h7h1.png?width=1496&format=png&auto=webp&s=84a3a72ed75bdfac4d8340a33b210334e1473fc6
**Now here's how you regards lose money anyway:**
The pump is FRONT LOADED. It happens BEFORE the index buys, not on the day. Tesla ran up for weeks into its S&P add and then DROPPED 6% on the actual inclusion day, because every front-runner sold into the index bots. If your plan is "buy July 6 and moon," congratulations, you ARE the exit liquidity. 🌈🐻 behavior.
**Receipts, because I know you want loss porn instead:**
Yeah I'm a finance prof, boo nerd whatever. I ran this exact framework on Tesla's 2020 inclusion ahead of time: called +43%, it printed +40%. Same machine points to a double digit pop for SPCX, with most of the move landing BEFORE the bots actually show up.
**TL;DR for the no attention span crew:** $9B of can't say no buying hitting a $75B float = real pump. But it's front-run into the ground, so the move is mostly BEFORE July 6, and inclusion day itself can dump. Don't be the Tesla inclusion day bagholder.
Full DD with all the math and the boring caveats here: [https://www.pouyabehmaram.com/articles/spacex-forced-buying](https://www.pouyabehmaram.com/articles/spacex-forced-buying)
Positions: long 100 SPCX @ $150. Gotta put money where my research is at. 🚀🚀