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SpaceX. The math is, in fact, mathing

M
Jun 10, 2026 · 21:10

The SpaceX IPO and all the emotion about Elon is making people argue so much out of emotions and hunches, so here is some figures of you to evaluate yourself

This is all for 1 gigawatt of AI compute

1) Cost of terrestrial AI deployment(excluding the chips)

Facility construction: $15b
Facility hardware(electric, cooling, HVAC, racks, etc): $2b
Power generation (onsite-owned): $3-10b

Total upfront cost (excluding chips): $20-$30 billion.

2) cost of Satellite AI (Using AI-1 satellite specs as announced recently):

Satellite weight: 2 tons
Compute capacity:120-150kw
Number of satellites required for 1 GW: 9000 (rounded up to account for lost satellites)

Starship capacity: 100-150 tons (50-75 satellites)
Falcon heavy capacity: 62 tons (30 satellites)

Satellite cost(excluding chips again) : current starlink mini is $200k, V3 is estimated at $1 million (including all the antennae) so I will go with $500k

Launch cost (current, not future):
Falcon heavy: $100mil/launch commercial pricing for 3rd parties.
Starship: $90 mil estimated internal cost
Starship (future resuable) Elon says $10m so I will go with $50m

Cost of launch 9000 satellites:

Falcon heavy commercial: 300 launches X $100 mil = $30 billion
Starship current cost (at 60 satellites a pop): 150 launches X $90 mil = $13 billion
Starship future = $7.5 billion

Cost of satellites (excluding chips): $4.5 billion

Total cost of deployment sats+launch for 1 GW of compute: $12-$34.5 billion

TLDR: the AI satellite business is viable using current technologies and extremely competitive if starship works out at even 5X the cost Elon estimates

PS: no, heat radiation in space is not an issue at all, that is just straight misinformation spread online by people who just want to dunk on Elon. The radiator surface would be less than the required solar panel surface, look it up