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REDDIT

OpenAI filed for IPO but is the entire AI hardware backlog a massive trap??

R
Jun 9, 2026 · 12:50

Bro im lowkey shaking thinking about this because if you look at the actual math, that $805B hyperscaler capex Morgan Stanley is forecasting for 2026 doesnt just turn into magic software revenue overnight, it has to physically land in concrete and copper first. Like OpenAI just dropping that confidential S-1 right after Anthropic did completely breaks the dam, but the front-end software hype is blinding people to how much physical gear needs to be built right now just to backstop these valuations. If Equinix port billings spike this quarter and SMCI actually protects their gross margins on these massive liquid-cooled rack orders, its fucking over, the infra cycle is repeating exactly like the old telecom boom. I am terrified i'm missing a blindspot here but watching MSFT and Google capacity reservations this week is gonna show if the backlog is real or just double ordered fluff, you gotta watch the actual hardware flow or you're gonna get absolutely crushed on the downstream. What am I missing here guys?? Are you seeing any weird data on the colo billings yet, or are we tracking the exact same signals? Let me know what you're seeing on the ground because i'm trying to figure out if this infra cycle is as locked in as it looks or if the hardware backlog is a trap.