The Bet:
Now 223 (up from 115) contracts of the Tesla December 18, 2026 $990 calls now at $3.61 — the single most profitable option out of roughly 8,000 different contracts on the entire Tesla chain in the event of a surprise merger announcement.
The Setup:
Elon has repeatedly said he views advanced AI and humanoid robots like Optimus as a potential existential risk to humanity. He tried to secure 25% voting control at Tesla to protect his ability to steer that future. When he couldn’t get it, he built absolute control inside SpaceX instead. He can sign a definitive merger agreement at a set exchange ratio, let’s say 4 SpaceX shares for 1 Tesla share.
After the announcement the shares will trade in lock-step until the merger closes approximately six months later.
1 + 1 = 3
