With the little spike this morning, I figured I'd share my secret position. I theorized that the turnaround was near for GENI, and the last earnings call confirmed it.
GENI is the genius behind all of your addicting sports bets, and their tech is making them \*even more\* addictive. They're the only data contract owners of the major sports leagues, NFL, NCAA, European football leagues (fuck if I know how those work), PGA, and NASCAR being the main positions. Their business thesis is opposite of SRAD, who focuses on smaller contracts with the NBA and other less pricey contractual data agreements.
Their platform uses near instant data feeds for live, in-game bets as well as functioning as a data oracle for transactions on sports moments. GENI sells their data to over 700 betting platforms like DraftKings, and just last month entered a multi-year agreement with Polymarket. They own and develop so much more proprietary data and in-depth sport and \*customer analysis\* with the purchase of Legend. That was a risky bet, and was the entire reason the stock dropped last year, as everyone thought they were over leveraged for the buy. Projections from this last earnings proved it was a smart investment.
This company is going to be the PLTR of sports betting, and an early position here feels very comfortable with the rest of the market froth going on. They're still priced under their 200 WEEK moving average.
Risk: most contracts are out to 2030+, there is potential that data eventually gets spread to other platforms, or the NFL and other leagues start their own platforms. Unlikely, because the NFL is significantly invested in GENI.
The boring stuff:
MC of $1.59B
Q12026 revenue of $188M, 31%YoY growth
Q1 $24M EBITDA
Forecast raised for full year to revenue over $990M and EBITDA over $270M.
Positions: 1000 shares @ $5.58, 1000 more @ $6.47
20x $10 Jan 27 calls
25x $12.5 Jun 27 calls
Will be buying more shares on dips under $6. Options volume is almost non-existent, so options are likely not the play unless that volume booms on price reversion.