big tech's $350B AI capex is returning about 18 cents on the dollar

I pulled Q1 2026 10Qs for $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $AAPL. Combined capex guidance is roughly $353B. Identifiable AI revenue across all five? About $61.5B trailing. That's $0.18 per capex dollar.

Honestly Meta was the worst to isolate because their AI value is buried in ad optimization. I ran the filings through MuleRun to get structured data then spot checked myself. Microsoft at 27% looks solid thanks to Copilot bundling. Amazon committing $105B at only 13% is the number that actually worries me. Positions: long $MSFT, $GOOGL.