I’ve been following the SpaceX IPO for over 10 years and plan to put a significant amount in and hold for 10–15 years.
That said the current implied valuation already looks very high, and I amm struggling to reconcile it with realistic forward returns. I’m confident in the long-term story, but I’m questioning whether the risk-adjusted upside still justifies the entry price, or if returns are more likely to be solid but not extraordinary (e.g., lower IRR than a typical “home run” outcome).
Curious how you’d think about underwriting it at IPO day market cap. Should we jump on from Day 1 or see 1M-6M performance?
Here is some examples of highest Market Cap stocks, their markets and their performances over time.
|Rank|Company|IPO Year|Exchange|IPO Day Mkt Cap|IPO Price|1W|1W %|1M|1M %|1Y|1Y %|Today|Today %|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Saudi Aramco|2019|Tadawul|\~$1.70T|$8.53|$9.40|\+10.2%|$9.33|\+9.4%|$9.35|\+9.6%|\~$7.2|\-15%|
|2|Alibaba|2014|NYSE|\~$168B|$68|$89.89|\+32.2%|$102.94|\+51.4%|$79.50|\+16.9%|\~$130|\+91%|
|3|SoftBank Corp.|2018|Tokyo|\~$72B|¥1,500|¥1,282|\-14.5%|¥1,250|\-16.7%|¥1,465|\-2.3%|\~¥220|\-85%|
|4|Meta Platforms|2012|NASDAQ|\~$104B|$38|$31|\-18.4%|$27.72|\-27.1%|$24.31|\-36%|\~$640|\+1,580%|
|5|Visa|2008|NYSE|\~$44B|$44|$66|\+50%|$62|\+40.9%|$85|\+93.2%|\~$390|\+786%|
|6|General Motors|2010|NYSE|\~$50B|$33|$35.50|\+7.6%|$36.25|\+9.8%|$24.50|\-25.8%|\~$52|\+58%|
|7|Uber|2019|NYSE|\~$82B|$45|$41.60|\-7.6%|$43.75|\-2.8%|$32.79|\-27.1%|\~$102|\+127%|
|8|Rivian|2021|NASDAQ|\~$77B|$78|$122.99|\+57.7%|$104.67|\+34.2%|$32.80|\-57.9%|\~$15|\-81%|
|9|Airbnb|2020|NASDAQ|\~$86B|$68|$139.25|\+104.8%|$146|\+114.7%|$165|\+142.6%|\~$171|\+152%|
|10|Snowflake|2020|NYSE|\~$70B|$120|$253.93|\+111.6%|$390|\+225%|$315|\+162.5%|\~$210|\+75%|
|11|Coinbase|2021|NASDAQ|\~$86B|$250|$342|\+36.8%|$298|\+19.2%|$53.7|\-78.5%|\~$295|\+18%|
|12|Robinhood|2021|NASDAQ|\~$32B|$38|$55|\+44.7%|$44.5|\+17.1%|$13.7|\-63.9%|\~$61|\+61%|
|13|DoorDash|2020|NYSE|\~$39B|$102|$189.5|\+85.8%|$175|\+71.6%|$131|\+28.6%|\~$198|\+94%|
|14|Arm Holdings|2023|NASDAQ|\~$54B|$51|$63.6|\+24.7%|$54.7|\+7.2%|$124|\+143.1%|\~$148|\+190%|
|15|NTT DoCoMo|1998|Tokyo|\~$75B|¥3.9M|¥4.5M|\+15.4%|¥4.3M|\+10.3%|¥2.8M|\-28.2%|Delisted|—|