IEA MAY 2026 REPORT: DEMAND DIPS 420K (NICE), BUT SUPPLY IS CRATERING!

Source link:

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026

Listen up you beautiful regards, the IEA just dropped the May 2026 Oil Market Report and the numbers are absolutely spicy. While the suits on CNBC are going to panic about "contracting demand," if you actually have two brain cells to rub together, you’ll see the supply-side squeeze of the century is unfolding right now.

World oil demand is forecast to contract by 420 kb/d y-o-y in 2026 to 104 mb/d, which is 1.3 mb/d less than the pre-war forecast. However, the real story is the absolute supply destruction happening in the background. Global oil supply dropped a further 1.8 mb/d in April alone to 95.1 mb/d. This brings the total supply losses since February to a staggering 12.8 mb/d. Do the math, demand is "shrinking" by less than half a million barrels, but we’ve lost nearly 13 million barrels of supply in just a few months. This isn't a dip, it's a structural vacuum, and the pre-war forecast is dead and buried.

While the rest of the market is fighting over AI chips, I'm over here making Wendy's regional-manager level paychecks, from the companies pumping the black gold that keeps the world turning. If you aren't looking at drillers and E&Ps when supply vanishes this fast, you're doing it wrong. Buy oil or stay poor.

Portfolio Disclosure (Name - Ticker - P/L %):

Valaris (VAL) +123.19%

Seadrill (SDRL) +104.42%

Noble (NE) +102.33%

SM Energy (SM) +74.55%

GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) +67.11%

Chord Energy (CHRD) +66.82%

Kosmos Energy (KOS) +63.16%

Crescent Energy (CRGY) +56.84%

Matador (MTDR) +41.77%

Murphy Oil (MUR) +26.68%

SunCoke Energy (SXC) +16.38%

FTAI Infra LLC (FIP) +6.41%

Peabody Energy (BTU) +3.64%

Mosaic (MOS) -1.24%

Comstock Resources (CRK) -18.67%.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I'm just a regard who likes the smell of crude.