I’ve spent the day digging through AI-driven data, and the bull case for VSTM's commercial-stage drug is incredibly compelling. We’re looking at a target population of over 2,000 KRAS-mutated patients. At an annual cost of $500,000 per patient, in a disease where the recurrence rate is over 80% and traditional chemotherapy offers a dismal 10% ORR, VSTM’s \~44% ORR gives it a near-monopoly in this niche
Once insurance coverage fully kicks in and scaling begins, even with a conservative estimate of 1,000 active patients, we are looking at annual revenues exceeding $500M, which should translate to at least $100M–$200M in net profit. If patient access improves through broad insurance reimbursement, extending survival by several years, the actual patient pool will likely far exceed 1,000
I honestly don't see the logic behind the massive short interest here. I’m planning to increase my position after the earnings report, regardless of the immediate price action. And this valuation only accounts for the currently marketed drug—it doesn’t even factor in the rest of their pipeline value.