Having been around long enough to see the market be many times more irrational than I am solvent I can only offer this nugget to those who are mystified at the unfairness of markets rising in the face of negative and yes, very worrisome, news out of Iran.
And yes, this is what I tell myself at night as i try and fall asleep:
**If markets priced everything in, there would be no crashes, no black swans, no panic moments. But they are unpredictable.**
... of course... someone like Michael Bury will predict them and get a movie made about their incredible ~~luck~~ foresight.
That said, slow steady grind up is what the markets are systemically built to do 99% of the time. It is baked into our monetary, governance, and political system. VTI and chill as they say (though I do think you can do better).
Now, on the other hand, humans have an extraordinary way of ignoring the realities piling up in front of them with no real plan to solve the crisis that will emerge in liquidity, environment, or social cohesion. It's unpredictable when and how bad these disasters will happen, but we know that they will and always have... 1% (or less) of the time.
You need to think "Insurance" not "Lottery Ticket" when it comes to market collapse... hedging. 1-5% of your portfolio weighted appropriate to your outlook and macro thesis to protect against highly correlated downswings (i.e. crashes).