I think we are in for a bloody Monday... this is a potentially catastrophic outcome and could potentially ensure a recession this year.
the question now is what is Trump's reaction.
I think he essentially has two options.
1. resume the war. this would cause a pretty aggressive sell off and I think we would blow past the lows of a couple weeks ago.
2. wash his hands of the situation and basically say "not my problem". I think this is the more likely outcome. iran will likely toll the strait independently as opposed to as part of some international system that was probably the intended outcome from the talks.
if trump chooses path 2. he has conceded defeat and I think in that scenario it is uncontroversial to say that Iran benefited strategically from the war.
if he chooses option 1, the economic damage will be incredibly severe and the mid terms and probably any hopes for Republicans in 2028 will be shot.
it is a lose lose scenario at this point from Trump's perspective.
I expect the market to be down 2-3% on Monday in anticipation of guidance as to the above. Trump may signal his answer tomorrow in which case the market will react accordingly.