It's a popular idea among finance boomers that software companies are only going down because AI is kicking their asses so much. "You can build your own saas product in house now, AI is so great" blah blah blah. In reality tech in general is going down, AI included.
Case in point Medallia which is in the news for its failing private credit situation with Blackstone. [https://peinsights.substack.com/p/blackstone-drives-medallia-negotiations](https://peinsights.substack.com/p/blackstone-drives-medallia-negotiations) On the surface it looks like the "SaaSpocalypse" right? But whoops "The company's software-as-a-service (SAAS) platform utilizes AI technology to analyze structured and unstructured data from \[blah blah blah\]". [https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/55329-40#overview](https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/55329-40#overview)
You heard that right, the company is heavily into AI, so any efficiency gains that AI can supposedly produce should be transferred to the company. If the AI hype were true, they should just be one guy and his dog now controlling a team of agents maintaining all this software for dirt cheap right? Right!? But it's all fucking bullshit.
Still don't believe me? Look at the darling of AI, Nvidia. They are the ones making all the profits in this bubble but are still down from highs over 200 to now trading in the mid 170s. Nvidia even dropped 4% on a record breaking earnings report in February [https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/26/why-did-nvidia-stock-crash-after-blowout-earnings/](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/26/why-did-nvidia-stock-crash-after-blowout-earnings/). Microsoft did the same despite the magic of co-poilot crammed into Windows and them spending billions on AI crap, they dropped 12% on earnings.
Oracle is down 50% from peak despite going all in on data centers and joining the Stargate project bullshit. This month they are cutting 30,000 people all at once. Shouldn't they be rolling in cash because of the AI boom? Instead they are another bad loan on Blue Owl Capital's books. "But I thought private credit risk was all 'software' not AI?". Hah, wrong.
So how in the world is this supposed to be a SaaS only problem and how is AI the winner when all the AI players are taking a massive shit too? Make that make sense.
Positions: Puts on QQQ, XLK, XLF. Long duration.
