As someone looking at a strict 30-year investing timeline before retirement, I think QQQM has a stronger case than VOO for long-term dollar-cost averaging. I know the usual Boglehead response is that QQQM is just performance chasing and adds uncompensated risk. But I think that argument falls apart once you look more closely at how people already invest.
The first issue is what I see as the VOO versus VT inconsistency. If a person really believes that any extra concentration is uncompensated risk, then they should not be holding VOO at all. They should be holding VT. By choosing VOO, they are already making a bet on one country and one part of the global market because they believe large U.S. companies will do better than the rest of the world over time. Choosing QQQM is not some completely different idea. It is the same basic choice, just taken one step further. If someone already believes in concentrating in the U.S. for stronger growth, then it is reasonable to argue for concentrating in the Nasdaq-100, which is made up of many of the most profitable and scalable companies in the country.
The second issue is the problem of over-diversifying. Diversification can be helpful, but adding more and more holdings just for the sake of diversification can also slow down compounding. VOO gives you exposure to the major tech companies that are pushing a huge part of economic growth, but it also makes you hold a lot of slower-moving companies and sectors. QQQM cuts out much of that extra weight and focuses more directly on growth.
The third point is that a 30-year investing plan should not stay the same the whole time. One of the biggest flaws in the “just buy VOO forever” mindset is that it treats risk tolerance like it never changes. In the first 15 to 20 years of a 30-year timeline, time is your biggest advantage. That is the period when it makes the most sense to be aggressive. Volatility is not always a bad thing during those years. In fact, if the tech market falls, monthly investing lets you buy strong businesses at lower prices.
Later on, as retirement gets closer, that is when a more conservative shift makes sense. At that point, the goal is less about maximizing growth and more about protecting what you built. That is when moving gradually into VOO, or even bonds, becomes more logical.
VOO is an excellent tool for preserving wealth, and I think it makes a lot of sense as you get closer to retirement. But during the long accumulation phase, I believe QQQM is the stronger growth engine.
Change my mind.
(Bogleheads removed my post from their subreddit lol)