The biggest deadlock to the opening of the strait, and rise of oil prices is: Lebanon.

Sorry to post twice in a day. but I live in the area affected by the war. and my humble two cents is that something people overlook is the importance of Israel's occupation of Lebanon to this matter. there is no way Iran will open the Strait unless Israel withdraws from Lebanon. and there is no way Israel will withdraw and abandon its dreams of annexing more territory. no matter what trump says or does.

Iran abandoning Hezbollah will make it lose all credibility amongst its proxies in the region. it wouldn't do that.

and Israel won't suddenly agree to withdraw.

the US will have to turn its back on Israel once and for all to open the Strait.

Edit i ask anyone downvoting to kindly explain why. I genuinely cant see how the Strait could open with this deadlock, but happy to change my mind