What is the over/under on a weekend Truth Social post from Trump announcing a "breakthrough", leading to an S&P rise?

Given WTI futures are approaching $100 (seems to me to be Trump's Truth Social trigger), and the S&P is falling, what are the odds that Trump reveals a "negotiation breakthrough" and "imminent end to hositilities" this weekend that Iran subsequently denies?

Ah, and it looks like [Israel has pledged to intensify strikes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/27/iran-war-live-updates-trump-negotiations-bombing-hormuz-energy-oil-prices-middle-east), and Iran has [announced the closure of Hormuz to the US, Israel and their allies AGAIN](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3348177/iran-says-hormuz-closed-shipping-and-enemy-ports), despite Trump claiming the US and Iran are exchanging love letters in the background, and despite the complete inconsistency with being expected to believe that the US has a "secret man on the inside", and that the US would announce that secret to the whole world and the IRGC.

Are we still in a world where Monday Truth Social driven S&P calls are a good buy, or has the boy cried wolf too many times?