Crowd’s bearish—everyone thinks boots on ground, endless war. But nah: Trump’s gonna land Marines on that tiny island (90% of Iran’s crude flows though it), leave tanks standing. Iran caves—no full fight.
The US Tripoli is nearing the Strait, takes it Maduro-style. US flag raised. Trump’s been consistent. 40 years ago: “They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look like a bunch of fools. One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it. Today: Asked who would control the Strait of Hormuz, he said “Maybe me,” adding the new Iranian leader would play a role too.
SPY bounces back to pre-buildup 695 in 30 days plus add 5% delayed gain from blowout fourth-quarter earnings calls in late January overshadowed by the arrival of the USS Eisenhower, easing inflation worries, and first real peace in the Middle East in 50 years.
