$XOM at all-time highs while the Strait of Hormuz is basically closed. Are we too late? Or this is just getting started?

Oil just hit $100/barrel for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war. $XOM is up nearly 30% this year alone, hitting record highs. Meanwhile the S&P is down, airlines are bleeding, and 20% of global oil supply is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.

*The bull case*: Exxon’s Permian breakeven is around $35/barrel. At $100 oil, the cash flow is insane. $20B in buybacks already committed for 2026. Wells Fargo just raised their price target to $183.

*The bear case:* the rally might already be fully priced in. Analyst consensus target sits around $144, below where it’s trading right now. A ceasefire or a Hormuz resolution could wipe the war premium overnight.

Saw a lot of debate about this on Blossom this week, pretty split between people loading up and people who think they missed it. So what’s the actual play here, $XOM still has room, or did you have to be in before Feb 28?