I have been an active participant in the stock market for 6 plus years now. Trading 1.5-2.5million, per year, as a swing trader.
Hoping I'm not alone; currently feeling like I have no fucking clue in where and how to position myself for the coming months. I am 75% in cash.
The Macro environment and overall narrative: Oil Crisis, Private Lending, National Debt, Junk Corporate Bonds selling off, Global geopolitical risks all suggest a looming correction across the markets.
However, most of the higher time frame charts of both indices and individual names are showing constructive bullish divergences.
My best bet at trying to "figure out" what is happening is that there will be a melt-up for the next couple weeks maybe month before either setting or testing ATHs at which point the rest of the risks in the market result in a bear market towards the later half of 2026.
Total selling volume has not been huge thus I'm thinking there are still large players that are trying to generate enough liquidity to exit the market, which will likely cause buying over the next couple of weeks / month or so for their positions to be liquidated.
There is also an increasing amount of Quantitative Easing occurring, and potentially the need to cut interest rates to combat the weaking GDP and Labor market conditions - both would support rising equity prices, at least in the short term.