What happens to the flow of oil if Trump declares victory and walks away?

Curious what people’s thoughts are on this. It feels increasingly likely to me that the way this ends is with oil spiking well above 100, Trump is unable to bring it back down with bluster, he panics and decides to TACO. He does this by declaring they’ve done enough damage to set the regime back by a century and withdraws, praying that this reopens the straits and brings the price of oil back down before it tanks the US economy and he loses the midterms in a landslide.

At that point, why do you think happens? Assume the production infrastructure of the region is still largely intact. Does Iran open the strait only to their allies’ shipping? Does they keep it shut entirely? Some third option? What’s the impact to oil prices long term if only the Chinese and a few others can get ME oil for the foreseeable future?