Listen to me very carefully because the mainstream financial media is too cowardly to talk about this. Everyone is crying about Brent Crude and WTI futures because of the blockades in the Middle East. "Oh no, my commute costs more!" "Oh no, the supply chain!"
Fools. Absolute novices. You are looking at the wrong numbers. You need to look at the DOWNSTREAM derivatives. I’m not talking about gasoline. I’m talking about **MASSAGE OIL**.
Look at the geography for a second.
Do you know what comes through those choke points? Petroleum. Do you know what the primary base ingredient in 90% of commercial massage oils and synthetic personal lubricants is? **MINERAL OIL.** A literal petrochemical byproduct! As the tankers get backed up, attacked, or rerouted around the entire continent of Africa, the insurance premiums for shipping go through the roof. The cost of raw crude is dragging the global supply of sensual slip-and-slide down with it!
But wait, you say, "I'm vegan! I only use organic, cold-pressed Jojoba and sweet almond oil!" Guess what, genius? They are shipped in containers through the EXACT SAME blocked canals. Freight rates are up 300%. The organic alternative-slickness market is facing a catastrophic supply-shock due to panic-buying from the mineral-oil defectors.
# The Consumer Reality
We are facing an era of unprecedented FRICTION. Literally. Consumers are getting absolutely hosed. A standard 8oz bottle of premium therapeutic glide has surged from $12.99 to an eye-watering $38.50 at my local pharmacy.
Are people buying it? NO. Consumer willingness to purchase has evaporated. The elasticity of demand for massage oil is snapping. People are trying to substitute with kitchen pantry items like Crisco and olive oil, which is clogging drains and causing a massive secondary crisis in the residential plumbing sector (I am heavily invested in Roto-Rooter right now, but that’s a different post).
# The Macro-Social Indicator
This brings me to the real canary in the coal mine. When the basic logistical supplies of physical intimacy become cost-prohibitive, human behavior changes at a macro scale.
Think about the socio-economics of a spontaneous evening. If you can't afford the necessary... *supplies*... to ensure a smooth, comfortable, and well-oiled encounter, you simply don't host. If you can't afford to host, you don't actively look for people to come over.
My buddy works in data analytics routing server traffic, and she just showed me the geolocation ping volumes for local networking apps over the last three weeks. The daily active users on the grid? Falling off a cliff. People are barely opening Grindr right now. Why bother checking who is 500 feet away looking for "right now" when a standard hookup requires a line of credit just to afford the lube?
The blockades haven't just stopped cargo ships; they've literally gridlocked the grid.
**TL;DR:** Middle East conflict = high crude prices = expensive mineral oil = $40 massage oil = nobody can afford the logistics of a hookup = Grindr daily active users are crashing.
Buy puts on Match Group, start hoarding Vaseline, and hold on tight. It's gonna be a rough ride.