**The Thesis**
I am convinced that Iran will either be democratized or the market will heavily price in Iran’s democratisation in the next 6 months. Either outcome PRINTS on this play. And right now, we are before that decision. $USO is at $90+ because “bomb + middle east = WW3”
Nobody is looking past the war to what comes after.
I am. You heard that right. I’m thinking ahead of my boy Ken Griff and Jane Ave. (Pls give me an internship)
Iran’s Supreme leader, big man on campus, Mr. Khamenei has been kirked. People who would be shot for rejoicing are now throwing parties on the street.
The US is pushing hard, and I think there is a high chance Iran ends up with a democratic government or at least some form of temporary, non-extremist leadership. The result either way is oil becoming cheaper than it’s been in years.
**The Setup**
USO has been bouncing between the $90s and the $60s consistently every year for five years. It’s at its high right now. But unlike every other time it’s been up here, a major Middle Eastern player one that controls a chokepoint for 20% of global oil has a real chance of flipping its entire political structure. This makes me wanna smoke crack and max out my credit cards on this play. (764 btw💪)
**The Play**
USO $40 Puts expiring January 2027.
Current ask: $69 (nice). I’m the only motherfucker bidding at $49.
I set aside 10% of my last CRSR play to buy these lottery tickets. 6 contracts, $354 total investment so far and if it hits my limit price of .49 I will buy two more.
**Why $40 Strike?**
The strategy is not that $USO goes to $40. The strategy is that $USO hits $65 and the market starts heavily pricing in the possibility of $40. When that happens, these options gain significant value from the shift in sentiment alone even if $USO never touches $40.
This is a volatility and sentiment play.
**The Exit**
I’m out in 4–6 months regardless. That is my prophecy. I’m convinced that within that window, the Iran situation will either be life changing or nothing happens. Either way, I’m not holding these to expiry.
**Risk**
$354. That’s it. This is a literal lottery ticket EXCEPT the odds of winning are infinitely higher than the powerball. The risk/reward is absurd if this plays out.
Positions: 6x USO $40P 01/2027 @ $0.56 avg
When this contract goes 500x i’m buying a c4 corvette.
See u on the other side. 🫡