Ok regards, listen up. The market moves in liquidity cycles. In 2019 and 2020 the market was flooded with money, this means equities will go up because ppl have more money to spend on stocks, people also have money money to spend on everything so businesses do better, which makes profits go up and equities go up even further. If they have a lot of liquidity because governments are printing like crazy they start spending money on bs like bitcoin and NFT’s. At some point you get inflation and people move into commodities like oil and soybeans and shit because they are a hedge against inflation (2021). The inflation then catches up with the economy, people can’t afford things, business do bad, people sell their stocks, NFT’s go to zero, bitcoin tanks, stock market goes down, economy sucks (bear market of 2021 to 2022). Once inflation peaks and starts coming down, people start moving out of commodities, start moving into bonds and defensive stuff like Coca Cola and Colgate and safe boomer stuff like that. At the bottom of the downtrend people move out of boomer stocks and more into bonds. Because everyone is buying bonds, rates fall, cost of borrowing goes down, companies invest in factories and shit, productivity picks up, equities slowly start to do better, bear market starts to ease, bull market begins (late 2022) and the hole cycle starts over.
Where are we in the cycle? Peak liquidity was probably around November last year. So at that point people should have started moving into comedies (which started in January of this year) to hedge inflation and out of risky assets. This is well underway. Thats why bitcoin started falling in November because people start selling risky assets and bitcoin will be the first to go. Now, we should be heading into a weak equity market, and weaker economy in general. I think the fact that SPY still isn’t at 700, and all the recent jobs have been in healthcare is a good indication the economy is on the downtrend. This is where VGK comes in. Trump wants to win midterms no matter what, so he will not let the economy go into the recession it should naturally go through and he will not let equities come down like they should. But money cant be in two places at once, it can’t be in equities and in peoples pockets and at the same time invested into AI and manufacturing. So Something has to give, the only way he can keep the dow at 50000 and the economy going and AI spend going is to through the dollar and bond market under the bus. My prediction is the dollar will tank later this year and they will probably have to do some form of yield curve control on the 10 year. So the smart thing would be to get your money of of USD. It can go into equities but at best equities will stay flat until the end of the year maybe even down after November and probably wont pic up until 2027. Keep in mind if equities do stay flat this year it’s probably only because they are a hedge against inflation and the real value probably went down. So this leads me to VGK. It is also a hedge against inflation but a better on than US equities. If USD falls to Euro VGK gets a natural boost, and they are in a different stage of the liquidity cycle than the US, they are spending money now so there equity markets will be on the upswing when the US markets are on the downswing.
TLDR: USD is crashing, buy VGK or similar investment instruments.
I am also a retard trying to figure this out so if you think you know better, which i am sure you all do, let me know.