It gets mentioned as one of many factors but it just seems to me this is the one highly probable event that could be a black swan and there has been very little discussion of that. The two sides are so far apart - we want total capitulation and they will yield on nothing at all - that any "talks" are just posturing for the inevitable. I don't see any how either side could back down.
Anything less than an overwhelming display of dominance by the US will be bad. And if we should suffer major losses I don't see how the market doesn't implode. Even if they don't get many of our planes and ships, Iran knows our end goal is regime change so they will have nothing to lose and will fight in every way they can. That could mean terrorist attacks in the US or on US interests worldwide. They could go scorched earth and attack US corporations, sink oil tankers, carry out assassinations, or even target the civilian population.
I haven't liquidated but I've been lightening positions and have passed on what normally I would have seen as great buying opportunities. Anyone else here basing their strategy around this?
Let me be clear, I am not interested in any political views of whether this war should or should not happen, purely it's effects on stocks, both individually and the market as a whole.