If this isn't a dot-com level event, then now is more or less the time to buy software

If you think this is a dot-com level bubble pop, you don't need to keep reading, because my overriding assumption here is that this ain't it.

For everyone else: just look at the charts. Any time software is this far off its ATH, it rips back up. I ran the numbers in Excel for the IGV, and the average 12-month return for IGV after it's down -32% (which is where it's at now) is +22%--if you exclude the dot-com and great financial crisis, which I'm assuming is not happening. If you look at MSFT specifically, this is basically the lowest PE you will ever get on MSFT outside a GFC-level event.

I know the charts look pretty scary, but you have to be greedy when others are fearful. I bought some MSFT, CRM, FISV and LULU, and sold puts on BUG and IGV to get in a bit lower.

And if this is a dot-com or GFC level event, everyone except the most extreme bearish positions will be fucked anyway, so don't panic.