**TL;DR:**
MU (Micron) and SNDK (SanDisk) have been on a parabolic AI-fueled rocket ride, but the last three days scream exhaustion: massive reversals on record volume after overbought RSI levels and stretched moving averages.
We're looking at 10-30% drawdowns short-term. Broader market chaos in silver/gold/BTC (crashes galore) and NVIDIA's inability to break out signal sector-wide pain.
Positions: MU Feb 20 26 $400 puts, SNDK Feb 20 26 $500 puts.
https://preview.redd.it/oazmnriq70hg1.jpg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bcf62041b243e2650697eef5691d98a4f261832b
https://preview.redd.it/a24fqriq70hg1.jpg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=670a2bef43ad6161b3724c393c5611d933e000c3
**Parabolic Pumps**
These memory names ran **100–200% in under two months** on HBM/NAND hype. The last **3 trading days** look like textbook tops.
# MU — Exhaustion in Plain Sight
* **Jan 28:** Ripped to \~$435 on upgrades, volume spike
* **Jan 29:** Flat doji at highs (buyers tapped out)
* **Jan 30:**
* Opened \~$446
* Topped \~$455
* Dumped to \~$407
* Closed \~$415 (**-5% day**)
**Technical red flags:**
* Shooting star on **50M+ volume**
* RSI peaked near **85**
* Price \~**20% above 20-day SMA**
**Thesis:**
**10–20% pullback** likely
# SNDK — Absolute Mania
* **Jan 28:** \+9% on short squeeze to \~$528
* **Jan 29:** \+2% pre-earnings hype
* **Jan 30 (Earnings):**
* Gapped to \~$651
* Hit \~$677
* Then **collapsed** to \~$533
* Closed \~$576 (**-11% intraday**)
**Technical insanity:**
* Shooting star on **40M volume**
* RSI hit **93**
* Price **\~50% above 20-day SMA**
**Thesis:**
**15–30% downside**
Target zone: **$400**
this is **momentum exhaustion after face-melting runs**
* MU: \~350% since 2024
* SNDK: \~**1,000% in 6 months**
# Combine this: Metals/crypto volatility = de-risking = tech rotation out. AI demand real long-term, but short-term froth pops.
Disclaimer: I'm probably wrong, this is crayon-eating DD, NFA. Do your own autism.