**TL;DR** $EULIF could go up 200-300% instantly if Trump makes a deal.
Now to the DD.
Hopefully the word "stroke" got your attention.
Let's talk HREEs: Heavy Rare Earth Elements
Where are these found? One significant place is Tanbreez in Greenland.
***"But I thought Tanbreez is under 800 freedom units of ice. You're so dumb lol suck my (body part)"***
Listen, regard. Tanbreez is in southern Greenland. It's warmer than NYC some parts of the year. It's a year-round open water port and they're building an international airport 15km from the mine.
***"But the Trump guy said rare earths \*aren't\* very rare. And Putin said Greenland is worth maybe $1 billion dollars."***
Russia isn't exactly known for getting fair value for land (see: Alaska). And if you're Trump and you wanted to buy something would you tell the world it's worth a lot of money? Well, I guess YOU would... this is WSB after all.
So maybe Trump called his buddy Vlad and said "Hey Vlad, can you say Greenland isn't worth much? That's a bunch bro."
And the next day that's what we saw.
***"But REEs are everywhere, and Greenland is really expensive to mine."***
Yes, but we're talking about HREEs and we're talking about National Security and we're talking about Trump's ego. And if the Tanbreez deposit is brought online (more on this later) the amount of HREEs in there reduce USA dependency on China from \~97% to \~50% in three years (coincidentally right before Trump's term ends). And $CRML now controls about 95% of Tanbreez.
***"But $CRML has already run like crazy. I don't buy things after they already had a run."***
You're smart. That's why you don't buy CRML here. You buy EULIF. European Lithium. Unless you're a regard on Robinhood who can't buy OTC stocks. Sorry, maybe get a real broker who CEO isn't named Vlad.
EULIF owns a very large stake in CRML and is currently priced at a massive discount to that stake, a discount of \~75%.
***"But EULIF just sold a lot of their CRML. Why would they do that if they think it's worth a lot more?"***
One acronym: FOCI. FOCI is Foreign Ownership, Control or Influence. EULIF owned a majority stake in CRML, making CRML mostly an Australian company. Now they own less than half. They have publicly stated their remaining shares are "strategic." And now that FOCI is cleared, the red tape is reduced for a USG ownership stake.
EULIF sold their CRML shares to an unnamed US institutional investor. That investor has ties to guess what? The Trump administration.
And this isn't just "ties." We are talking about the newly rebranded Department of War (formerly DoD) aggressively securing supply chains.
You think EULIF dumped shares because they were scared? No. They dumped shares to get under the 50% ownership threshold.
Why does 49% matter? Because at 51%, CRML is an "Australian-controlled foreign entity." At 39%, CRML is a "US-market company with a minority partner." That clears the deck for:
* Title III Defense Production Act funding (Free money from Uncle Sam).
* Direct Equity Injection (The rumored US Gov stake Reuters leaked).
* Classified Logistics Contracts (You don't get these if your boss is in Perth).
**The Math**
This is the only part that matters.
* $CRML Market Cap: \~$2.2 Billion USD.
* EULIF’s Stake: They still own \~48 million shares of CRML. And a direct take in Tanbreez too.
* Value of EULIF’s Stake: 48M shares × \~$18/share = $864 Million USD.
* Now look at EULIF’s market cap.
* $EULIF Market Cap: \~$320 Million USD.
This isn't just arbitrage. This is banking on Trump and the USA wanting to secure these HREEs for national security. And if they do, it instantly re-rates CRML and EULIF.
You are buying $864 Million worth of CRML stock for $320 Million. You are literally buying dollars for 35 cents.
Even if EULIF’s own mining projects (Wolfsberg Lithium) are worth ZERO (they aren’t, they just raised $80M cash to build it), the stock has to triple just to equal the cash value of the CRML shares they are holding.
Also CRML just signed a 50/50 JV with the Saudis. The Saudis are paying to build the refinery. CapEx? Gone.
**"But the market won't value EULIF's shares at 100% NAV. You're better off buying CRML"**
You're right. Not 100%. But the arb play is still huge, and I think a 300% gain isn't out of the question if Trump cuts a deal for total US access to Tanbreez (which, btw, 1% of the assets in Tanbreez are valued at $3 billion dollars.... 1%).
**Regard summary:**
Asset: Biggest HREE deposit in the West. Not buried under ice.
Funding: Saudis paying for the plant.
Politics: Trump wants it to stick it to China. (97% to 50% dependence for HREEs)
Valuation: EULIF is trading at a 65% discount to its own assets.
Positions: 1,000,000 shares $EULIF. I am ready to eat crayons if this goes tits up.
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