$SENS - The Sleeper Stock Set to Disrupt the $20B CGM Market with a Life-Changing 365-Day Sensor
Hi Everyone,
Senseonics Holdings ($SENS), has been on my radar for quite some time, and I finally believe it's time for this company to take off. I first got into SENS back in the beginning of 2021, when it ran from pennies to dollars. This run was caused by hype around their Continuous Glucose Monitor products (CGM) that last 180 days, and 365 days, the important one being their CGM that lasts 365 days, called Eversense. Here is a brief explanation of a CGM:
Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGMs) are medical devices designed to track blood glucose levels in real time throughout the day and night. They are primarily used by people with diabetes to help manage their condition more effectively, reducing the need for frequent fingerstick tests and providing a more comprehensive view of glucose trends.
How CGMs Work:
1. A small sensor is inserted under the skin (usually on the arm or abdomen) to measure glucose levels in interstitial fluid.
2. The sensor connects to a transmitter, which sends glucose data to a smartphone, receiver, or insulin pump.
3. Users can see their glucose readings at any time, track trends, and receive alerts for high or low blood sugar levels.
Dexcom, one of the leading CGM providers in diabetes cares CGM sensor only lasts up to 10 days, and transmitter only lasts up to 90 days. A CGM that lasts a full year is a complete game changer for diabetic patients. This product being available, means they no longer have to prick themselves, or get their sensors implanted every few months.
The problem, back in 2021, was that both the 180 day and 365 day CGMs were pre-FDA approval. Unfortunately, myself, and other investors, underestimated the time it would take this company to both file and be approved for selling of the 365 day CGM. This caused a loss of interest and investors to pull-out as they realized that it would take years for this product to materialize. However, that approval came late last year, and after 3 years of remaining sidelined and watching the company develop, I have decided it is time to reinvest in $SENS as their 365-day Eversense CGM is fully on the market in 2025.
**The following reasons are why I believe it is time for SENS to expand and take its place as the leader of CGM systems for diabetes management, overthrowing Dexcom.**
\# 1 - The Longest-Lasting CGM on the Market
Senseonics 365-Day CGM, Eversense, is the first CGM with a full-year lifespan, significantly reducing the burden of frequent sensor replacements.
The Eversense CGM offers a Mean Absolute Relative Difference (MARD) of 8.5%, making it among the most accurate CGMs available.
\#2 - Expanding Insurance Coverage - A Key Growth Driver
Insurance adoption has been a major factor in CGM market expansion. While initially limited, coverage for Eversense has been steadily improving, including:
* Medicare Coverage: In February 2022, Medicare expanded coverage to include Eversense for eligible users.
* Private Insurers: Many large U.S. insurers, including Blue Cross Blue Shield, UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, and Aetna, have begun covering Eversense, improving affordability and adoption.
* State Medicaid Programs: Multiple Medicaid programs have included Eversense in their CGM coverage, increasing accessibility.
As CGMs become standard for diabetes management, more insurers are likely to cover long-term CGMs like Eversense, which could significantly boost adoption.
\#3 - European Market Expansion & 365-Day CGM Approval
Senseonics has submitted an application for European regulatory approval for its 365-day Eversense sensor, which could give it a significant first-mover advantage in the long-term CGM segment.
* Europe has less restrictive reimbursement policies than the U.S., potentially allowing for faster adoption.
* If approved, this would make Eversense the only full-year CGM on the market, setting it apart from competitors.
* Success in Europe would provide critical data and a commercialization roadmap for future U.S. approval.
\#4 - Search for an Insulin Pump Partner – Key to the Closed-Loop System Market
CGMs are essential for automated insulin delivery (AID) systems, which integrate CGMs with insulin pumps to create closed-loop “artificial pancreas” systems.
* Dexcom and Abbott already have partnerships with major insulin pump manufacturers like Tandem Diabetes Care ($TNDM) and Insulet ($PODD).
* Senseonics has expressed interest in partnering with an insulin pump manufacturer, which would open significant revenue streams and allow Eversense to integrate into the growing AID market.
* A partnership could increase CGM adoption as patients prefer seamless integration between their glucose monitoring and insulin delivery systems.
\#5 - Expanding Diabetes Market
* Global Diabetes Population: Over 537 million people worldwide have diabetes, projected to reach 783 million by 2045.
* CGM Market Expansion: Currently valued at over $20 billion, the CGM market is growing at a 10-12% CAGR, fueled by:
* Rising diabetes prevalence.
* Increased adoption of CGMs as the standard of care.
* Expanding insurance reimbursement for CGM devices.
* The growing trend of automated insulin delivery (AID) systems, which require CGMs for glucose data.
**Catalysts to Make Senseonics Take Off In The Near Future:**
1. Earnings Report on March 3rd - 2025 being the first full-year that Eversense is approved, Senseonics is expected to raise revenue guidance for 2025, and have grown revenue year over year from 2023 to 2024
2. Europe Approval - Senseonics filed for approval to sell Eversense in Europe, this month, and should receive decision on the next two months. Getting approved, and having access to this market, would be very bullish.
3. Cancellation of Reverse Split - With Senseonics recent price action, they have been able to cancel the need of a reverse split. Confirmation of this during the earnings call, will ensure investors that the future is bright for Senseonics.
4. Pump Partner Announcement - The anticipation for Senseonics to announce a pump partner has been big amongst investors, and is thought to be imminent with Eversenses 365 day approval last year.
After being too early, I sat and watched this stock for 3 full-years, and now believe it is time for Senseonics to make the right moves, and take off.
Senseonics is positioned for significant growth as it expands insurance coverage, seeks European regulatory approval for its 365-day CGM, and explores insulin pump partnerships. While adoption hurdles and financial risks remain, the company’s first-mover advantage in long-term CGMs could allow it to carve out a meaningful share of the growing CGM market.
Positions:
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