Boys I think its becoming clearer by the day so far in 2026 that we are having WW3 this year. POTUS wants defense companies to invest and he ain't afraid to push them where it hurts. Having control over South America just solidifies the US from any attacks. China has turned from deflation to inflation and it seems they are ready for war as well. The volume of chips that the US and allies will need for at least the next 10 years will no longer be coming from Taiwan or anyone else, so the US has to make chips for the good side. Intel is the only company in the world currently capable of manufacturing state side with that volume. Makes sense now why POTUS took 10% stake in Intel and has strong control over the CEO.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_Intel\_manufacturing\_sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_manufacturing_sites)
Now the fundamentals - yes Intel is losing money and EPS is negative but you gotta ignore the past and look at the future. Just imagine everyone begging Intel to make chips for them - AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, AMD, QCOM, AVGO... NVDA currently is going for price to sales ratio of 25 and INTC is only at 3 right now. Just imagine what happens when China invades Taiwan and blocks chip supplies to its enemies. The tables will turn, NVDA to P/S ratio of 3 and INTC to P/S ratio of 30. That takes the stock to 400 and market cap of 2T, not something hard to image or overly ambitious.
Now about the timing - I think China will need at least a quarter to prepare for full scale invasion of Taiwan and stock themselves for any sanctions. They have loaded up with GLD, SLV and all the rare earths. I think the invasion happens sometime in between April - June. I dont think they will want to go beyond June cause that gives a lot of time for the intelligence community to choke China even before it begins, so they want to get it done as fast as they can.
I have personally been investing in INTC for past 2yrs with this scenario in mind - triggered by the CHIPS Act and President Biden ordering all American CEOs to exit manufacturing from China and bring it state side. However you only profit if the consensus eventually agrees with your thesis, and it seems the cog is turning towards this thesis day by day in 2026. Remember uncle Buffett said something like be greedy when others are fearful or something.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Make your own investment decisions. This post is not sponsored by hedge funds looking for exit liquidity, I am a regard just like yourselves.
https://preview.redd.it/xcylrq6tp9cg1.png?width=1736&format=png&auto=webp&s=95ba6ffe4055e7f901b96d6edb7130493024269c