What would be consequences to global economy and investing if China decides to definitely move on Taiwan after US intervening in Venezuela?

To me, Venezuela case could lead to China think two things:

1. "If US can do this to sovereign country, we can do it as well to an island which is (according to CCP) part of our country and long overdue for reunification."
2. "Damn, US really mean business. We better refrain from anything stupid with Taiwan so we stay out of trouble."

Although i hope for the scenario number 2, i am afraid that we are facing scenario number 1 in very close future. But Taiwan war, if to be conventional and not nuclear, could mean definitely disruption if not total destruction of semiconductor manufacturing facilities. That would throw whole world into economical depression of unknown dimensions.

Since the Taiwan is global hub for semiconductor manufacturing, its of course of vital importance for the whole global economy, especially after AI have propelled tech sector to such highs that it makes up pretty significant part of economy output.

So what do you think, is this really probable or am i just being hysterical?