Can someone with experience explain to me why MPC is not a huge opportunity?

Hey guys,

I'm relatively new to investing, and with a background in geopolitics, I decided to go pretty hard (\~25% of my portfolio) on MPC, the largest oil refinery in the US, about a month ago. Sorta bought the peak. The logic was as follows:

MPC is the largest petroleum refiner in the US. By that point it was up \~25% YTD. 293% 5 years.

Generally speaking, oil is a finite resource, and even if the world switches to renewable energy, petroleum-related products are going to remain mandatory. (asphalt, bitumen etc).

As for MPC specifically, I thought it was uniquely positioned to benefit from the geopolitical situations unfolding. First of all, many of its refineries are located on the Gulf Coast, primed to receive Venezuelan crude. In fact, they were built *specifically for it*. They are the best suited refiner for sour, heavy crude, which is the vast majority of what Venezuela has. Secondly, they're the only refiner that's expanding its factories to accommodate more volume. And lastly, they've been regularly and consistently buying back shares, suggesting high confidence in the business from the company side.

Geopolitically speaking, I figured MPC should benefit from the conflict no matter how it ends. When Venezuela concedes and the US gains access to VE crude, MPC wins the most because it can import raw materials at premium prices. And it **will** end that way, based on the fact that Maduro has **already** offered the US premium access to its oil reserves, and Trump has refused. This means that the only question is **how** preferential US access will be to VE crude, not whether or not it will obtain it. The fact that it may take a month or a year should be irrelevant to market speculation, right?

Source: [https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Maduro-Offered-Venezuelas-Oil-to-Trump-to-Avoid-Conflict-with-US.html](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Maduro-Offered-Venezuelas-Oil-to-Trump-to-Avoid-Conflict-with-US.html)

That being said, I understand that the global prices of oil have gone down, over speculations of oversupply. But MPC is a *buyer* of oil, not a seller. The core products of MPC, like Diesel and distillates, are seeing the exact opposite. There's a supply *squeeze* in the US, not a glut.

All that being said, if anyone has the patience to look into it for a hot minute, could you please explain to me why the stock tanked so hard in the last month? And whether it makes sense to attempt to DCA?