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REDDIT

2025: Crystal Ball Awards

#Redditors
* April: [It’s Over. The Market Is Cooked. Hope You Enjoyed the Ride.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jrk43o/its_over_the_market_is_cooked_hope_you_enjoyed/) ⸺ [Suicide Hotline](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jrmmdq/suicide_hotline/)
* May: [The stock market will crash even further](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jryzrw/the_stock_market_will_crash_even_further/)
* June: [Why I am bearish on S&P and sitting tight on my puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1l6532i/why_i_am_bearish_on_sp_and_sitting_tight_on_my/)
* July: [Are we facing a stock market crash in July? Trump’s “Section 899”](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1l3asmb/are_we_facing_a_stock_market_crash_in_july_trumps/)
* August: [Do you expect a crash – August tariff deadline?](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1m2ijwp/do_you_expect_a_crash_august_tariff_deadline/)
* September: [Anyone else getting that “September’s gonna punch us in the face” feeling?](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1m30bjk/anyone_else_getting_that_septembers_gonna_punch/)
* October: [When do we start discussing the October Effect? I kind of feel we are in for a big correction](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/1mkdo80/when_do_we_start_discussing_the_october_effect_i/) ⸺ [Get ready, we're going over the falls](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1o40l7f/get_ready_were_going_over_the_falls/)
* November: [There's been a few hiccups here and there in this rally, but this one feels different…](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1oqyhzv/nasdaq_headed_for_worst_week_since_liberation_day/nnmo89c/)
* December: [Why The Market will crash to historical level by December](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1mvy5mj/why_the_market_will_crash_to_historical_level_by/) ⸺ [honestly just sold everything. this market feels fake.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1pidr40/honestly_just_sold_everything_this_market_feels/)

#The professionals
- Axios: [Recession warnings are looking flat wrong as consumers power the economy forward](https://www.axios.com/2025/09/26/inflation-pce-report-recession)
- Bloomberg: [What Economists Got Wrong on Tariffs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn7sWfDo3go)
- J.P. Morgan: [From a feared 26% to an actual 10%: JPMorgan economist explains why US tariff shock hasn't arrived yet](https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/from-a-feared-26-to-an-actual-10-jpmorgan-economist-explains-why-us-tariff-shock-hasnt-arrived-yet-503312-2025-11-23)
- The Wall Street Journal: [Economists predicted a global shock from President Trump’s tariffs, but some of them are now revising their growth predictions upward due to AI spending by the U.S. tech industry](https://x.com/WSJ/status/1995433971090395592)
- The Economist: [Were we wrong about Trump's tariffs?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1_z-obLdrI)
- CNN: [We’re in a ‘windchill’ economy, where things feel worse than they are](https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/09/economy/affordability-economy-windchill)
- OECD: [Despite US trade war, OECD expects global economy will grow 3.2% this year](https://apnews.com/article/world-economy-tariffs-trade-inflation-oecd-36d49da64d52710d698348c89be79725)
- IMF: [Global Economic Outlook Shows Modest Change Amid Policy Shifts and Complex Forces](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/10/14/global-economic-outlook-shows-modest-change-amid-policy-shifts-and-complex-forces)
- Bloomberg Chief Economist: [Yeah, I am surprised as well. But that is the data speaking.](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1998786643919036564)
- The Washington Post: [Why you may not want lower prices as much as you think you do](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/30/consumer-high-prices-economy/)

#Misc charts
* [Fed projections](https://x.com/fejau_inc/status/1998830622513795079/photo/1) goldilocks.
* [Inflation expectations](https://x.com/RenMacLLC/status/1996962731258180015) and [inflation swaps](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G7wHbjUaoAA1GUz?format=jpg&name=large) round tripped.
* [Domestic-to-international performance ratio](https://www.tradingview.com/x/PFEtHnKJ/) round tripped, the actual anomaly was the lame duck session outperformance.
* [Inflation adjusted 60/40 portfolio](https://www.tradingview.com/x/OtNIiDCc/) (normie allocation outside Reddit) finally broke out of the COVID range, recovering from the bond carnage.

Please begin submitting your January market calls.

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