I have been trying to dig through Softbank's balance sheet, but for me this is rather opaque, so would be happy if someone could shed light on the real risk here.
Looking at the annual report (I disclaim that I might make errors copying), on the 25th of March they had (page 102):
45 trillion yen in assets, 31 trillion yen in liabilities.
Now, in other places they claim loan to value of about 18%. What's actually the case here? (I seriously tried to get a view, but I find this much more difficult to understand than typical bank balance sheets, there's a lot of talk around the numbers...). Particularly, they then had 87% in Arm holdings, so if that devalues (which it is doing right now), how much can that affect their financial stability?
In principle, such downvaluations could erase their own capital, but do they have hidden reserves that could be activated?
Of course this has larger implications, since they finance parts of openAI, and so this can radiate over to things like Oracle. Any constructive discussion will be highly welcome!