I could use some feedback from a potential strategy I'm considering. For context, before the 2020 election I was fairly certain Biden would win the election, which would start a bullish cycle for domestic and other cannabis stocks based on the belief he would possibly legalize, or enact positive regulation in the sector vs a Trump election win. I built up a sizeable position and rode the wave to the 2021 highs of the cannabis sector and made a good profit.
Now that the prices of MSOS and other cannabis stocks have fallen steeply since 2021 I'm considering opening a long dated MSOS ETF call dated for 2028 exp. My reasoning is that as we get closer to the 2028 election and IF (big if) a strong democratic candidate emerges that could possibly win the 2028 election, the cannabis sector will start another bull cycle in anticipation of this, and in anticipation of potential federal legalization promises or hints, and or SAFE banking act passage, and in general a democratic admin not hostile to the sector and pro-cannabis legislation. My thought is if I can open this long dated call which right now is not very expensive, by the time 2028 nears the call will possibly appreciate sharply going into the election and beyond.
I'm interested to hear thoughts on this potential strategy. I am aware this thesis is based on a lot of uncertainty, and hinges on democrats winning the 2028 presidential election amongst many other things that could not come to pass.