Former Okta employee (3 years). Great experience/comp, but I’ve watched this stock behave in a way that doesn’t match a “category-defining” IAM name.
Not here to pump. I’m trying to understand what the market is pricing in for the next 12–36 months.
Context I remember:
• OKTA fell hard from prior highs to the 70s/60s in 2022.
• Security-related headlines + weak/incomplete messaging seemed to wreck confidence.
• Auth0 (~$6.5B) was widely viewed as an overpay and the synergy story felt slow.
The pattern:
1. OKTA reports
2. Beats estimates
3. Stock pops
4. Then fades under $100
5. Drifts back into the 80s
Feels like a trust/narrative discount more than just fundamentals.
My key questions:
• What’s the real bear case today?
• Is Microsoft bundle risk the main overhang?
• Is Auth0 still a drag or turning into an asset?
• Why do CRWD/Zscaler get premium multiples while OKTA can’t hold $100+?
• What would trigger a durable re-rate to $120–$150+?