This Market is Basically Daring the Fed Not to Cut, and the Tech is Running the Show

So far today's Reuters update, I am honestly convinced the market has already made up its mind: we're get a December rate cut, and investors are going to keep piling into tech it's like 2020 all over again.

Global equities popped today after a round of Fed-speak boosted the odds of easing next month. And what's the first sector everyone sprints into? Mega-cap tech again!

Alphabet is very close to becoming a $4T company, which is insane if you step back and look at the chart from just a year ago. People are treating AI like a guaranteed macro hedge.

Meanwhile the dollar’s still firm, yen’s getting crushed, geopolitical noise is in the background… and none of it seems to matter. As long as the Fed leaves the door cracked open, the market is basically saying:

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Personally, I think this melt-up is starting to look a bit too euphoric. Not bearish, but definitely “priced for perfection” levels of confidence. One wobble from the Fed and tech could get smacked.

**But right now, bulls don’t care. The AI trade is the only trade.**