Alright you fellow degenerates and gamblers, gather round. Forget Nvidia AI GPUs for a sec, I found the ultimate boomer stock with the most WSB energy imaginable: **Hillenbrand ($HI)**. Yeah, I know, sounds like a law firm or a casket company. Spoiler: it *was* a casket company. Now it makes boring plastic machines for Nestle and General Mills. Yup, exciting stuff.
So why should you care? Because some **private equity giga-chads (Apollo, Lone Star, Stellex)** are sniffing around like wolves at a nursing home buffet.
Here’s the kicker:
* EBITDA = \~$418M
* Normal boring industrial buyouts go for \~9–10× EBITDA
* Do the math: that’s a buyout price of \~$3.7–$4.0B EV → translates to about **$33–$36 per share**.
* Stock is sitting at $26.6. Bruh.
Now the fun part. Some **smart money lad yeeted $1.5M+ into $HI $30 calls expiring in November** right before close on Friday.
So we’ve got:
* Real buyers (Apollo don’t mess around).
* Real EBITDA math saying $33–36/share is the sweet spot.
* A PE bidding war.
* A random whale throwing $1.5M into illiquid calls like it’s a DraftKings parlay.
My dumb brain translation: either this dies in a ditch and we all lose money, or we get the juiciest $7–10/share tendie pop when a deal hits. My guess? **70% chance this goes through, 30% chance we’re bagholders crying into our Costco caskets**
So obivously, I YOLO'ed 50k into it. If you want exposure to *actual* smart money degeneracy instead of lotto scratchers on SPY weeklies, $HI might be the boomer rocket you never expected.
Based on my analysis target price: **$33–36**.
Expiration date: **hopefully before our (at least mine) contracts do.**
TL;DR This company was killing it before tariff, still making a lot of things, all in the US of A. There's a bidding war and company will be acquired, I expect 7-8x EBITDA, so based on some sophisticated advanced complicated math, I think stocks will be at least $33 once it's announced or goes through. So...
https://preview.redd.it/pazzcmtlw3sf1.png?width=1632&format=png&auto=webp&s=0128363ea2339dcfe9a0792140896662e918a391
The big whale play
https://preview.redd.it/klplrpf094sf1.png?width=2059&format=png&auto=webp&s=55d2a7c6dec6652bd82bb76ce9a43f12a79e36fc
https://preview.redd.it/d4t9822a94sf1.png?width=1207&format=png&auto=webp&s=aec23f93a1ad387db4310b26526b6616ccfa2892