$UPST (Upstart) is a AI powered lending platform and currently have around a **26%** float short with **3.2** days to cover. In 2021 they hit almost **$400** per share and with the lower interest rate environment their fundamentals are drastically improving again!
**Why it’s squeezable**
* **Short interest:** **\~21.1M shares** short = **\~26.3%** of float; **days to cover \~3.2**.
* **Float:** \~**84.1M** shares.
* **Borrow dynamics:** IBKR **CTB \~0.4–0.6%** lately; available shares fluctuating (\~150k–350k seen). If price trends up, borrow can dry up fast.
**Fundamentals massively improving**
* **Q2’25 revenue:** **$257M, +\~102% YoY.**
* **GAAP net income:** **+$5.6M** (vs. loss a year ago).
* **Volume:** loans +\*\*\~159% YoY\*\*, dollar volume **\~$2.8B**.
* Balance sheet and guidance commentary point to continued normalisation of funding.
**Macro tailwind**
* **U.S. Q2 GDP revised to 3.8% annualized**, a solid backdrop for risk assets and consumer credit cyclicals like UPST
**Price targets**
* Street 12 month PTs cluster around **$81 avg** (range **$47–$108**), implying notable upside from here. However, this could go MUCH higher with the interest rate cuts now planned and their improving financials - plus with the squeeze potential.
**Catalysts**
* Next earnings + any funding/partner expansions
* Options OI building into earnings can add fuel too
**Levels I’m watching**
* Break/hold above recent supply zone = go time, invalidation is a decisive close back below the last higher low so watch for this...
**Thesis:** Shorts are crowded into a name that just flipped back to profitable with triple digit revenue growth, right as macro prints strong. If UPST clears resistance with momentum then its going to blow up...
Check out the recent article that StockTwits did on it too around a short squeeze potential.