Posts  / BTC  / #POST-209803
REDDIT

BTC correlation to market

C
May 10, 2025 · 22:58

Sort of a yolo for me I guess since these are all June Calls. I pivoted most of my HOOD May Calls to June and used funds to get MSTR June calls.

Still feel more upside to resolving tariffs than downside (at least progress) money on sidelines really want to push market up.

I like BTC related trade right now because if things do go poorly with tariffs, it’s actually a bit less downward volatile compared to something like QQQ. In fact, it could slowly shift to becoming a “safety” trade to preserve capital.

Years ago I would have felt BTC would be a flight to safety like Gold or Swiss Franc. But it actually is positively correlated and even a bit less volatile lately. So I look at BTC more after hours than after hours pricing.

For instance, just had a small jump up when China talks said they’d resume Sunday. (And didn’t blow up). Trading solidly above $100k and may break $105k this week given the momentum.

I don’t own BTC but MSTR is a proxy. Even HOOD is a proxy since crypto trades are so profitable. But BTC is still a good indicator for overall market. At least I tell myself that on a weekend :)

One last note… people don’t understand MSTr earnings. They are basically based on BTC profits. Q1 saw a drop so major negative earnings. But by April, already shifted positive. So Q2 will be massive profitability. It’s expected given BTC above $100k but again, many people don’t get that and will see huge beat. I’ll probably exit MSTR early June in any bit up day. Re-enter on any pull back to roll forward to catch q2 earnings.