300x SPY Bear Call Spread into the Trade Deal Hopium — Charging $3.25. Free Money?
SPY’s been ripping lately from its lows on “trade deals” and general hopium. Latest one? UK. media made it seem like a big deal, but that’s not moving markets. Plus, that's an ally. Easier to get a trade deal done there than with other trading partners.
China is the main one that matters. And I don't think we’re anywhere close.
Markets have been pumping on this weekend's meeting with China, and this is how I think the news will go on Monday: Trump says, “The deal went great.” — Xi comes out a day later and says, “We're not even close.”
All in all, the leading player who's been flinching and going back on their word is the orange man and his crew. XI's been set in stone, while Trump's flinching with either bond yields rising, markets collapsing, negative remarks from big Wall Street players, etc, etc..
Most Recent Trump talks tough (145% tariffs), then backs off (80%), then says they’re negotiating (BTW 145% and 80% is the same thing in terms of trade - people are importing anything with either). This cycle’s been repeating. Xi isn’t blinking. We are.
So here’s what I did:
* **Sold 300 SPY 605C 9/30/25 @ 10.74**
* **Bought 300 SPY 615C 9/30/25 @ 7.49**
Total credit: **$3.25 or $97,500**
SPY’s at **564**
Break-even at **608.25** → That’s a **7.8% move up**
Max loss if SPY rips above **615 around a 9% move up**
# Thesis:
* Trade deal with China breaks down (again) next week
* No way we rally another 8–10% with macro headwinds
* Market already priced in “good outcome,” there’s too much downside from here
* We don’t touch February’s high again anytime soon
**Risk:**
* CPI tanks → Fed starts signaling cuts
* Tech earnings beat hard
* Or Xi caves (not likely)
If we go higher and break SPY ATH, im cooked. But I like the odds. Ill take a 2 to 1 risk reqard any day of the week.
**TL;DR**
Charged $3.25 for 300x bear call spread.
SPY needs to break ATH for me to get burnt. Way to many hurdles in its path, main one being a China deal.
If we chop or fade on another China fake-out, I’m walking with 6 figures.
https://preview.redd.it/879v2ngwntze1.png?width=1480&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e1aeb46297069f64bd15ec0eba5508f8abb2079