The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.5 percent on April 24, down from -2.2 percent on April 17. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.4 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.9 percent to 7.1 percent.
[https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow](https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow)
