$TGT – Target is a Sitting Duck. I'm Buying Puts and You Should Too.

The bull case for Target is dead. I’m loading up on puts like it’s 2008 and this place sells CDOs. Here’s why:

TL;DR:
Consumer spending is falling. Foot traffic is down. Earnings are flat. They're getting wrecked by Walmart, Amazon, and Costco. Their DEI pivot backfired and pissed everyone off. Tariffs are incoming. Margins are about to get smoked. I'm buying puts, and it’s looking real good.

Financials are soft:

Q4 2024 revenue: $30.92B (beat, but barely)

Full-year 2024 net sales: $106.6B, down from $107.4B in 2023

Full-year EPS: $8.86, down from $8.94

Stock is already down 20% over the past year

You can’t spin that into a growth story. Flat is the new down, especially with macro pressure.

People aren’t shopping there anymore:

10 straight weeks of declining in-store foot traffic

Cutting back DEI stuff alienated both sides of the aisle

Costco is scooping up their customers and their lunch

Curbside and online aren’t saving them like they used to

Tariffs + Recession = Profit Implosion:

Trump’s new tariffs are hammering imports from China, Mexico, and Canada

Target has to either eat the cost or pass it to consumers. Both suck.

Their CFO straight-up said consumer spending is cautious and soft

GDP forecast for Q1 2025 is negative. Recession vibes confirmed.

They’re getting crushed from all sides:

Walmart is cheaper and better positioned

Amazon dominates online

Costco is recession-proof and more beloved

Target is stuck in the middle, with no clear value prop

The trade:

Buying more Jan 2026 $70P and $65P

IV still reasonable for now

Tariffs + weak macro + earnings misses = real downside

If this cracks below $90 again, it could fall off a cliff.

Final thought:

This isn’t just a bearish play. This is a breakdown in identity. Target’s stuck trying to please everyone and is failing to please anyone. Consumers are broke, boycotting, and buying bulk from Costco. Their pricing isn't competitive. Their foot traffic is drying up. Their margins are at risk. And their best-case scenario is flat sales. Not exactly a growth story.

Short $TGT. Buy puts. Let the charts do the talking.

*EDIT* Positions added below

https://imgur.com/a/yyeWZyy