Looking at the Atlanta Fed GDP growth estimates for 2025Q1 sitting at -2.2% (https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow) I think it pretty evident that a recession (2 quarters of negative GDP growth) is coming. Even if Trump lifts all tariffs tomorrow With the knowledge that even if Trump lifts all tariffs tomorrow, the majority of supply chain issues and rising prices caused this quarter will be felt in Q2. And Trump lifting all tariffs in Q2 is something that is not feasible, a more realistic bull scenario would be gradually removing tariffs until they're all gone. I think it pretty evident that even if deals are made, it's wise to prepare for a recession.
