Fulfilling the American dream is predicated on finding the perfect mix of timing and risk. Well gentlemen I think we're at that junction. Tariffs this, tariffs that. I just told my wife we're remortgaging the house because it's time to hammer down. We're leveling out the bottom of a fire sale that has particularly affected companies that are "perceived" to be at a disadvantage due to the tariffs. One particular stock that has been decimated has been VF Corp ($VFC). The conglomerate that includes brands such as Vans, The North Face etc etc. It's down around \~60% since mid February.
Here's my counterargument:
1) $VFC has a supply chain that is primarily focused in Vietnam, which is why everyone panic sold when Trump had the highest tariffs levied against Vietnam on his poster board. BUT, Vietnam was one of the first countries to reach out to the United States to broker a deal. They are willing and ready to get rid of the red tape and yield to our terms, which may place trade with Vietnam in an EVEN BETTER place after this deal is finished. Whenever this meeting takes place and an agreement is signed, apparel companies manufactured in Vietnam are going to gap up big time. Hopefully this takes place in the next few months. I promise you when it comes through $VFC will not be trading anywhere near $10. Even it only gains back half of what has been lost as a result of the tariff announcements, you'd still be up around 75%.
2) The underlying financials have been improving Q/Q and Y/Y consistently under the new management. The North Face has been a star on the balance sheet. Last quarter they posted a double beat. Insiders have been buying. They de-leveraged by selling Supreme at the end of last summer. Vans has been sluggish relative to the other brands, but the turnaround with Vans is on the horizon now as well. Vans had one of the most popular exhibits at Milan fashion week (which by itself was honestly sick AF as a standalone piece of art). They are making a huge influencer push right now. Traffic to the Vans website has increased by around 80% in the last three months. They launched Vans on fortnite to get the next generation of screen kids hooked.
I will post my positions in the comments.