Here is my thought for this weekend.
The last two months, the market has positioned itself going into weekends to avoid risk of a major market impacting announcement. It has been risk off into every close on Friday.
I think that changes this weekend.
The market seems to now be on a hair trigger to cover shorts due to an unexpected Trump announcement. I think that risk is even higher over the weekend, and could come from Trump or China. I believe an escalation is already priced in.
Therefore, I think major market participants will hedge against major weekend move higher and that will result in closing our short positions into the close tomorrow.
The way to handle this would be to buy upside headed into the second half of the day. I suspect, until then the market is on a bit of edge due to bond and dollar action, so there may be discomfort in moving to far to the risk on side.
Just my two cents.
Thoughts / risks?