Three possibilities:
1. Nothing changes, at best we suffer severe recession, markets tank 30%-50%.
2. Turnip backtracks, publicly maintaining his demented bravado while quietly issuing broad exemptions. Markets catch on but trade sideways on uncertainty.
3. Turnip declares "victory" a few months hence, tariffs are reversed, markets recover past 2024 peaks.
4. Tariffs on top of US debt levels and China's economic contraction trigger the Great Depression 2.0 and all but the seriously wealthy are fucked.