The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is **-2.8 percent** on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26. The **alternative model forecast**, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described [here](https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/ModificationsToGDPNowModel.pdf), is **-0.5 percent**. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -3.95 percentage points to -4.79 percentage points in the standard model and from -1.92 percentage points to -2.53 percentage points in the alternative model.

[https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow](https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow)

Yeah, this look bad, but people said 2022 was a recession too. The market went up so everything will be fine. Buy the Dips! /s