**Due Diligence: TTD $70 Calls (07/18) – 100 Contracts at $4.80**
**Ticker:** The Trade Desk (**TTD**)
**Position:** **100x $70 Calls** (July 18, 2024)
**Entry Price:** **$4.80** ($48,000 total risk)
**Current Stock Price:** **~$65.50** | **Option Price:** **$4.85** ($48,500 position value)
**Thesis:** Betting on a swift $70+ breakout.
**1. Why I’m Playing This**
- **Earnings Momentum:** TTD surged **20%+ post-Q1** (May 2024) on ad-tech strength.
- **Technical Setup:** Broke $65 resistance; next stop **$70-75** (pre-ATH zone).
- **Catalyst Potential:** Summer streaming demand (Olympics, Netflix ads, etc.).
**2. Position Math**
- **Breakeven:** **$74.80** ($70 strike + $4.80 premium).
- **Profit Potential:**
- At **$70**: Calls worth ~$3.00 (-37.5%, but salvageable).
- At **$75**: Calls worth ~$5.20 (+8% + intrinsic value).
- At **$80**: Calls worth ~$10.20 (+112%).
- **Max Risk:** **$48,000** (if TTD ≤ $70 by July 19).
**3. Why 100 Contracts?**
- **High Conviction:** Expecting volatility squeeze toward $70+.
- **Liquidity Managed:** Using limit orders to avoid slippage (bid-ask: $4.75/$4.85).
- **Exit Plan:** Scale out at $6.00 (25% gain), $8.00 (67% gain), etc.
**4. Risks I’m Watching**
⚠️ **Theta Decay:** Losing ~$1.00/week in July (accelerates fast).
⚠️ **Low Volume:** Open Interest = [X] – may need to exit early.
⚠️ **Macro Risks:** Weak ad spend data or market pullback.
**5. Trade Management**
✅ **Added Stop Loss:** Auto-sell 50% if TTD < $63.
🎯 **Profit Targets:**
- **25% at $6.00** (sell 25 contracts).
- **50% at $7.50** (sell 50 contracts).
- **Let runners ride** if $75+ breakout.
🔄 **Hedge:** Considering $75 puts if market turns.
**6. Why Post This Now?**
- **Accountability:** Putting my money where my mouth is.
- **Discussion:** Are others playing TTD? Better ideas?
- **Transparency:** No pump—just sharing my thesis.
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**Final Thoughts**
**Bull Case:** TTD’s CTV growth justifies $75+.
**Bear Case:** $4.80 premium is steep—needs a strong move.
**My Bet:** Worth the risk for a **10-20%+ move in 4 weeks**.
**What’s Your Take?**
- *"Would you hold or hedge this position?"*
- *"Is $70 realistic by July?"*
- *"Any red flags I missed?"*
**Let’s debate!** 🚀