Games Workshop Stock: Is Warhammer worth more than Star Wars when acquired by Disney?
This post is in relation to Games Workshop (LON: GAW), the \~£4.66 billion (\~$5.93B USD) tabletop gaming titan behind Warhammer.
My thesis: Warhammer’s universe, intellectual property (IP) and ecosystem are worth *more* than GAW’s current market cap *and* what Disney paid for Star Wars in 2012 ($4.05B, or $5.54B in 2025 dollars).
I know this might sound bold. One can say that Warhammer’s a niche , not a mainstream beast like Star Wars was. However, as someone that's been closely monitoring latest developments of Warhammer in social media and considering an almost 50 years of lore, a rabid fanbase, and catalysts like Henry Cavill’s Amazon series, this could be a sleeper hit the market’s undervaluing.
Let’s break it down.
GAW is the king of tabletop wargaming, crafting Warhammer universes—*40k* (grimdark sci-fi), *Age of Sigmar* (fantasy), and *The Old World* (retro fantasy). Founded in 1975 by Steve Jackson and Ian Livingstone with *Owl and Weasel*—a newsletter that became *White Dwarf* in 1977—it’s been building lore for 50 years. Today, it’s a £145/share stock with:
* **Market Cap**: £4.66B ($5.93B).
* **Revenue (2024)**: £577.5M ($735M), up 15.6% CAGR over 5 years.
* **Margins**: 71% gross, 41% operating, 30% net—insanely efficient.
* **Cash**: £125.8M, net debt negative (-£79.4M).
* **P/E**: 27.1—pricey, but growth justifies it.
Warhammer’s niche: 1-2M players dropping $200-500/year on minis, paints, and books. It’s not Disney’s scale, but it’s a moat—high-margin, loyal, and sticky.
# The Thesis: Warhammer’s IP is worth more than $5.9B (and Star Wars’ 2012 Price). GAW’s $5.9B cap reflects a tabletop business, but Warhammer’s IP (its lore, brand, and potential) could fetch $9-10B if sold to a Disney/Amazon/Netflix.
Why?
It’s a 50-year universe with untapped multimedia juice, and it’s firing on all cylinders in 2025. Let’s compare:
* **Disney’s Star Wars Deal**: $4.05B in 2012 ($5.54B today) got Lucasfilm—six films, $4.4B box office, $20B in merchandise, 35 years of lore. Disney turned it into $12B+ by 2024.
* **Warhammer Today**: No films (yet), but $735M revenue, 50 years of history and a lore deeper than Star Wars—10,000 years of *40k*, Chaos Gods, Space Marines, plus *Old World* nostalgia. Licensing’s just $38M—5% of revenue—but it’s a powder keg.
**Valuation Math**:
* Core revenue ($735M) x 8 (media IP multiple) = $5.88B.
* Licensing upside ($500M/year from films/TV, Star Wars-scale) x 5 = $2.5B.
* 50-year brand premium = $1-2B.
* **Total**: $9-10B—above GAW’s cap and Star Wars’ 2012 price.
Crazy? Maybe. But Warhammer’s fans are deep into it. Warhammer’s got potential.
# Why Now? 2025 is lighting up:
1. **Warhammer 40k 10th Edition**:
* Launched June 2023, drove 10.8% core revenue growth in 2024 ($490M). Half-year to Dec 2024: 16.4% up ($307.5M).
* X buzz (Q1 2025): “warhammer" traffic’s 12-15M/month, up 10-20% from Q4 2024.
* Potential: $75M/year growth through 2026.
2. **Henry Cavill’s Amazon Series**:
* Deal locked Dec 2024: Cavill stars/produces a *40k* cinematic universe.
* Licensing ($38M now) could double to $76M by 2027, with $40M+ indirect sales if 200K newbies buy armies.
3. **The Old World Resurgence**:
* Jan 2024 launch, new faction drops (and rumours regarding Cathay).
* People +30 are getting back to Warhammer. Veterans spending $50-250/army per year
4. **Hachette’s Combat Patrol**:
* Launched Sept 2024 (UK), Jan 2025 (Spain via Salvat). Weekly mag with minis hooks newbies.
* Launched in US too.
# Warhammer vs. Star Wars?
Warhammer’s no Star Wars, yet. Star Wars had mass appeal; Warhammer’s a cult with 1-2M players. But:
* **Lore**: 50 years, denser than Star Wars’ 35 in 2012. *Black Library* churns 20+ novels/year—*Horus Heresy* alone is 60+ books.
* **Fanbase**: Smaller but fanatic—players co-create (painting, campaigns). Star Wars sold toys; Warhammer sells a lifestyle.
* **Upside**: Star Wars had films in the can; Warhammer’s a blank slate. Cavill’s series could be its *Force Awakens*.
Some say Warhammer's too niche. I say it has a potential future mass craze.
$9-10B is what a buyer pays for potential, not just today’s market cap.
* **Now**: £145, P/E 27, 4.2% dividend yield. Fair value: £150-160 (EPS $5.35 to $6).
* **Bull Case**: Revenue hits $850M by 2027 (Cavill, *Old World*), EPS $9, P/E 25 = £225—50% upside.
* **Buyout**: A $9B bid spins the IP to Amazon, triples licensing in 5 years.
Risks? Cavill flops, *Old World* fades—growth slows to 5%, stock stalls at £150. But GAW’s 67% ROIC and monopoly scream resilience IMO.
# Thank you in advance for your feedback on my comparison of Warhammer to Star Wars.
Best.