Three weeks ago, I made [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1iu1jy7/convince_me_i_shouldnt_be_a_bear_now/) post. There, I made an argument why markets were overpriced due to valuations and the actions of the current administration. It has been a very profitable 3 weeks for me.
I am still worried, and I'm wondering what are the counter-arguments.
1. Valuations are still high.
2. Trump admin and Musk are pushing austerity via spending cuts/mass layoffs.
3. Unstable tariff policy. Companies and consumers can't plan ahead. April 2 is coming. More chaos or clarity?
4. Soft data has been terrible.
5. High-frequency and corporate data (travel, retail) all point to a rapidly deteriorating consumer.
All of that makes me worried we are headed for a recession. Banks seem to agree and have upped their forecasts for one. Three months ago this would have been laughable.
Granted, this can all change on a tweet. The trump team can pivot, make tariffs more clear & targeted, and Doge can become more work and less theater. Then, we can get to beneficial tax policies & deregulation.
I'm concerned that's not gonna happen.
I'm concerned that Trump tariffs wont make companies move to the US & create jobs as Trump, Lutnick, and Bessent think they will. I'm concerned that people will get fired and become more poor, and Trump team will have nothing to show for it.
I don't think that a single CNBC or Bloomberg host has asked Lutnick or Bessent the simple question: "What if your tariffs & cost cutting don't work? What then?"
Ofc, they have jobs to worry about.
Now, to positioning & stocks:
I've been buying things that will benefit from protectionist policies, like INTC and X. I've also bought the dip on several big tech names & then sold them on Friday after the rally. Why? Take Nvidia, for example. Great company, but if chips aren't excluded from tariffs, then Nvidia's profit margins would get slashed. So would the valuation.
I'm sitting on a lump of cash & am waiting for more clarity, whether it's up or down.
What are your thoughts?