Good day fellow crazy babies,
today I want to talk about one of the biggest German banks Commerzbank (CRZBY) and why I am heavily invested in them.
Honestly I won't bore you with the basics, but to summarize they have very good financials, with rising common business activity, profit, EPS, dividends and capital:
||2024|2023|2022|2021|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|sales volume|11,9 B|22,5 B|14,6 B|12,2 B|
|profit|2,7 B|2 B|1,2 B|431 M|
|EPS (after tax)|2,28|1,63|0,99|0,23|
|dividends|0,65|0,35|0,2|0,00|
|capital|(no data)|527,8 B|491,9 B|473 B|
Yes, they do have debt, but it's a bank, that's their business model...
To the main topic, why is CRZBY going crazy and will continue doing so?
There are currently ongoing talks about a take-over from the Italian Unicredit bank. They are threatening a hostile take-over and already hold around 28% of shares, trying to increase their stakeholder power.
Meanwhile Commerzbank is trying to avoid a hostile take-over, but they are apparently not against a merger. We don't know the exact state of negotiations but looks like Unicredit will soon give a formal offer.
Of course to sell at the best price possible Commerzbank also has an interest in pushing the share price up, making them as expensive as possible to buy out. Hence insider buying is also going through the roof, indicading that Commerzbank is trying to "defend" by buying shares aswell.
As a result the share price has been going up and up and up and it will only go further up from here on.
The bank itself is already undervalued and if Unicredit succeeds with the take-over they will do so at atleast twice the shareprice giving the Commerzbank executives and other shareholders a real nice payout.
One thing to mention is the involvment of the German government: The German state is also a major shareholder and as a major German company they are not too happy about such a take-over, especially if it's going to be a hostile one.
But Unicredit chose a very wise time to attempt this. There is currently a re-election in Germany and the ruling parties have no time to worry about this situation, since they have to put all their resources into the election and their election campaigns.
And if there is a new government in 2 weeks (most likely), they'll first have other stuff to sort out.
As a result it is highly unlikely, that the government will put a stop to this take-over.
That's it for today, happy to hear all your opinions.
My positions:
https://preview.redd.it/98t2qau964je1.jpg?width=1007&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c48b47e9381bd4f1a0dfac464fa2cb43f2bcac6
additionally I now own another 1000 shares at 16,19€ from an inheritance account I do not have access to yet, until the paperwork of my deceased great-aunt is all sorted out.